Crafting opinions

TTL 18

Strong opinions need strong foundations.

👋 Good Morfternight! Paolo Belcastro here, welcoming you to the eighteenth issue of TTL: Tools & Thoughts for Leaders, your weekly dose of leadership insights.

“Audi, Vide, Tace, Si Vis Vivere In Pace,” translates to “Hear, see, and be silent, if you wish to live in peace”.

It is a medieval verse in Latin that has been shortened into “Audi, Vide, Tace” and used as a motto by Freemasonry since the 18th century. It encourages Apprentices to remain silent, listen, and observe, before they eventually start speaking.

It’s not just about secrecy. Not speaking and getting used to listening is an excellent intellectual discipline that makes it easier to form thoughtful opinions.

It’s very effective when joining any group, as a way to understand its rituals, and conventions before becoming an active participant.

It is also powerful when establishing an opinion on any subject. Learning is done by listening, not talking.

Today, we’re talking about how opinions are formed—or should be, and when it is critical to break such rules.

Defend your enemies

Part of Abraham Lincoln’s success as a young lawyer was that he typically began his opening arguments by summing up the other side’s case.

Why did this work so well?

When you start by showing the other side that you truly understand their argument, you take away their defensiveness. They no longer see you as someone trying to “win” at all costs but as someone genuinely interested in understanding the issue.

But Lincoln’s strategy had another powerful advantage: by articulating his opponent’s case, he was also learning and strengthening his position.

Think about it. Have you ever watched a debate club in action? Students are often assigned a side to argue, even if it’s the opposite of what they believe. This forces them to examine the issue from all angles, to defend a stance that may feel completely unnatural. It’s challenging but incredibly insightful.

From Aristotle to Nietzsche, from Keynes to Charlie Munger, there is a common thread about the idea that, to hold an opinion, one should know the opposite arguments well enough that they could argue for it.

Engaging with opposing views isn’t about playing devil’s advocate for the fun of it; it’s about forming opinions that can withstand scrutiny. It requires courage and intellectual honesty to confront the weaknesses in our beliefs.

But how frequently do we genuinely seek voices that challenge us? Not often enough.

To develop a balanced, well-rounded perspective, we must question ourselves and the very foundation of our beliefs.

Defend yourself (against yourself)

When it comes to forming opinions, our biggest opponent is not our counterpart, but our own mind.

Cognitive biases—those invisible shortcuts that shape our thinking—can lead us astray without us even realizing it.

These biases are built-in mental tricks which help us navigate information quickly but often at the cost of objectivity.

Here are some examples:

• Confirmation bias: We love information that agrees with us. It’s natural. This bias makes us seek info that backs up what we already think, while ignoring anything that disagrees. Solution? Actively look for the opposing side.
• Anchoring bias: The first thing we hear sticks. It becomes our “anchor,” coloring everything we learn after. That first fact might be shaky, yet it still sways us.
• Availability heuristic: If something’s easy to remember, we assume it’s common. Just because it’s memorable doesn’t mean it’s the rule. This bias tricks us into overestimating events just because they’re vivid in our minds.

To outsmart these biases, check the foundation of your beliefs regularly. Stay curious, humble, and open to new information, even when it challenges what you hold dear.

It takes work

Opinions are easy to hold, but difficult to form well.

Anyone can have an opinion, but one that stands up to scrutiny? That requires real engagement, digging into conflicting ideas, and arriving at a view that’s both informed and solid.

A strong opinion is like building a muscle. It needs regular exercise, repetition, and intentional practice. Here’s how to do it:

• Read like there’s no tomorrow. One article? Not enough. One book? Just the beginning. Stack up perspectives, dive deep, and connections will emerge that most others miss.
• Find the pros. Learn from them. Books are fantastic, but nothing beats advice from people who’ve done the work. They’ll give you insights, shortcuts, and strategies you won’t find in print. Wisdom straight from the real world.
• Flip your views upside down. As we said, if you’re never challenged, you’re missing half the story. Seek opposing views and test them against your own.
• Be honest with yourself, even if it stings. Clinging to ideas just because they’re comfortable? Time to let them go. Intellectual honesty means picking truth over nostalgia. Update, adjust, and keep things real.
• Know the difference between parroting and understanding. Memorized facts are rigid, but true understanding is adaptable. When you know something deeply, you can apply it to new situations with ease. Don’t just memorize—understand why things work the way they work.
• Don’t rush; let your opinions simmer. Avoid snap judgments. Treat each opinion like a trial case—look at all the evidence. Give your thoughts time, and they’ll turn out stronger and smarter.

The pros of an uninformed opinion

I’ll contradict myself for a moment—in line with the precepts above.

Let’s flip the script. What happens when someone steps into a now situation with fresh eyes?

Sometimes, the least informed opinions carry the most potential.

Think of a new member joining your team. They haven’t absorbed the culture, the habits, or the “way things are done.” They don’t know what “never works” or what’s been “tried a thousand times.” So they ask the obvious questions. They spot things everyone else overlooks.

There’s an old pseudo-scientific myth, about the fact that, according to the laws of physics, the bumblebee shouldn’t be able to fly (based on the surface of its wings and the weight of its body), but because the bumblebee doesn’t know that, it flies anyway.

Although more accurate models of the insect flying technique have debunked this myth, in areas that are not governed by strict laws like physics, ignoring what’s considered impossible is sometime the best path to make it happen.

Fresh, uninformed opinions are often more beneficial to the listener than to the person expressing them because they challenge assumptions that have gone unquestioned for too long. For the speaker, sharing an uninformed opinion is an act of curiosity or observation. But for the listener—especially someone entrenched in the status quo—it’s an opportunity to see the familiar with fresh eyes.

These perspectives strip away complexity and reveal things as they are, not as we rationalize them to be.

Of course, this fresh perspective fades. Six months, a year in, and they’re usually absorbed into the organization’s thinking. The newcomer learns the rules, the history, the failures, and successes. They become insiders. The window for these uninformed opinions is short, but it can be transformative if embraced.

TTL Bias Buster Checklist

Openness is the cornerstone of thoughtful leadership—whether you’re refining a well-informed opinion or discovering the value of a fresh, naive perspective. It means to be willing to listen, learn, and engage with ideas that challenge your own.

True leadership isn’t about always having the answers; it’s about asking the right questions, having the humility to revise your views, and recognizing when someone else’s perspective offers the insight you need.

Here’s a quick checklist to help you spot and counter biases as you navigate this journey:

• Question the first source: am I anchoring my opinion too early?
• Seek a contrarian viewpoint: have I searched for opposing evidence?
• Pause and re-evaluate: am I clinging to something because it’s familiar?

Enough from me—now I’d love to hear from you! What helps you stress-test your opinions and keep an open mind? (I’d like to have a well-informed opinion on this topic, you know!)

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That’s it for today.

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Here on TTL, we dig into practical leadership tips and effective strategies, with a particular focus on tech leadership and managing distributed teams (that’s what I do every day, add me on LinkedIn).

Whether you’re steering a tech startup or leading a remote team, these insights are designed to help you navigate the complexities of modern leadership.

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I also publish on paolo.blog and monochrome.blog

Cheers,